Canada’s luxury real estate market eased into spring with modest sales gains across key metropolitan cities, as the dynamic between prospective home sellers and buyers improved, and pricing expectations continued to come into alignment.

Despite strengthening consumer confidence and an increase in early-stage market engagement in the initial months of 2024, the expectation of additional property listings supply and potential interest rate declines prompted some buyers and sellers to defer transactions into the spring market. As a result, the country’s major metropolitan areas are expected to see a moderate improvement in sales activity across the luxury and conventional markets in the months ahead.

In the last couple of years, the real estate landscape, both in conventional and luxury segments, underwent significant changes due to rising interest rates and alterations in tax policies and regulations concerning property ownership. This period saw a prolonged standoff between home sellers holding onto inflated price expectations from previous peaks and buyers seeking properties aligned with current market conditions. This tension notably slowed down property transactions in major Canadian cities like Vancouver and Toronto in 2023, where luxury housing prices had previously soared.

However, as we transition into 2024, there's a noticeable shift in consumer mindset within the luxury market. Sellers are now entering the market with more pragmatic pricing strategies and, in some instances, a heightened willingness to close deals. This shift sets the stage for more fruitful negotiations between sellers and buyers, promising increased transactional activity and smoother market operations in the upcoming spring season.

Interestingly, Alberta's luxury real estate market has emerged as a bright spot amidst these national trends. Cities like Calgary and Edmonton continue to attract newcomers drawn by their appealing cost of living, relatively affordable luxury property prices, and vibrant business environment.

Market Highlights

• Consumer sentiment and market dynamics evolved in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in the first quarter of 2024, as seller and buyer expectations came into better alignment, setting the stage for improved sales activity. Luxury residential sales over $4 million rose 18% year-over-year across the GTA, in a market that remained balanced overall.

• Despite a discernible improvement in consumer engagement, first-quarter luxury sales over $4 million were down 17% year-over-year in Vancouver , as prospective home buyers and sellers strategically deferred transactional activity to spring.

• Montreal ’s luxury market experienced a stronger than anticipated start to 2024, as residential sales over $1 million increased 53% year-over-year in the first quarter, while sales over $4 million were on par with activity in the first quarter of 2023.

• Calgary 's luxury market continued to eclipse national trends as positive net interprovincial migration and buoyant consumer sentiment spurred a 63% annual spike in first quarter sales over $1 million, with two transactions over $4 million compared to a quiet first quarter in this market segment in 2023.